Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Madrid airport temperature market at 0% for the upper ranges, with USDC on Polygon backing conditional tokens that will settle against the final Wunderground reading for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on 22 May. In plain terms, the contract is currently treated as a low-probability bet on a very warm afternoon, not a broad “hot day” view, and the cutoff is the highest recorded temperature before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. With only morning hours left in scope, traders are effectively weighing the chance of a brief late-morning spike rather than the full day’s weather.

May in Madrid usually sits in a moderate-to-warm band, but the city can move quickly into the low 30s Celsius once clear skies and dry air take hold. Historical weather profiles for Madrid show average May highs in the low 20s Celsius, with daily highs typically rising through the month rather than falling. More extreme records are much higher: Madrid’s all-time peak at the city level reached 40.7°C in July 2022, which shows how hot the plateau can get in summer, though that is far above a late-May baseline. Against that backdrop, a 0% implied probability suggests the market sees the current range as comfortably below the threshold for the hotter outcomes.

For a trader, the main thing to watch is the morning forecast and any last-minute revision from the airport station data feed, because the market settles on the final highest temperature rather than a forecast headline. Madrid’s inland climate can produce sharp early heating under sun, but cloud cover, wind and a cooler start can cap the peak. The key dependency is the Wunderground history page for the airport station, since that finalised observation is what determines resolution; Polymarket itself only reflects the current odds as buyers and sellers update positions on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.