Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station for the capital. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting traders have not yet priced in expectations for this late-spring date. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific day, with USDC collateral locked on Polygon until the outcome resolves.

May represents late spring in Mexico City, when daytime highs typically range between 26–28°C. Historical data from the past five years shows temperatures on 25 May have varied between 24°C and 29°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during particularly dry years. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will fall within recordable ranges—the question is which band will capture the actual high, not whether one will.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Mexico City's weather patterns through April and early May 2026, particularly rainfall frequency and atmospheric pressure systems. The city's elevation at 2,250 metres moderates extreme heat, but prolonged dry spells or tropical systems moving northward can shift daily highs significantly. Seasonal forecasts from Mexico's National Meteorological Service, typically released monthly, will provide early signals about expected conditions. Current market inactivity suggests the contract may see volume only as May approaches and traders begin positioning based on medium-range forecasts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.