Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in Fahrenheit and settled via Wunderground's historical weather data. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the market's nascent state roughly eighteen months before the settlement window closes. This pricing suggests minimal trading activity and no consensus on which temperature band will ultimately resolve as correct.

New York's late May weather typically ranges between 70–85°F, with historical data from the National Weather Service showing median highs around 77°F for this date. The city experiences occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s during late spring, though such events occur in roughly 15–20% of May 24ths over the past three decades. Comparing to recent years: May 24, 2023 peaked at 84°F, whilst May 24, 2024 reached 79°F. These precedents suggest the most probable outcome clusters around the 75–85°F range, though the current zero-probability pricing indicates traders have not yet begun positioning.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by NOAA in April 2026, which typically indicate whether the Northeast faces above or below-normal temperatures for late spring. Atlantic hurricane season activity, beginning 1 June, occasionally influences late-May weather systems. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records for KLGA station, making data availability and station functionality the only operational dependencies between now and the 12:00 UTC resolution deadline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.