Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical issue with the market interface or that traders have not yet begun positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. Resolution will depend on historical weather data from Wunderground, pulling the daily maximum from the official station records.

Paris experiences typical early-summer conditions in June, with average highs around 23–24°C, though heat waves occasionally push temperatures into the low 30s. The city recorded 25.9°C on 2 June 2023 and 26.5°C on 2 June 2024, establishing a recent baseline. Historical extremes for early June at Le Bourget include peaks above 30°C during anomalous warm spells, most notably during the 2022 European heat wave when June temperatures across northern France exceeded seasonal norms significantly.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric patterns favouring high-pressure systems over western Europe in early June would shift probability towards higher temperature bands. The settlement mechanism requires manual verification against Wunderground's historical archive, so traders should confirm the data source remains accessible and unchanged before the window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.