Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's future date and the absence of real observational data. The contract resolves against Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on the day itself. Traders are effectively pricing uncertainty around a meteorological measurement that won't exist for over a year.

Paris's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 26°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. The city experienced 32.4°C on 6 June 2003 and 28.9°C on 6 June 2022, demonstrating considerable variability for this particular calendar date. Comparable European stations show similar June volatility, with extreme heat events becoming more frequent over the past two decades. Historical data suggests the most probable outcome clusters around 22–28°C, though tail-risk scenarios above 30°C warrant consideration given climate trends.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting models as June 2026 approaches, particularly seasonal outlooks from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Long-range climate patterns—including Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation—influence early summer conditions across northern France. Any significant climate anomalies or persistent heat patterns reported in spring 2026 could shift market pricing substantially, though current distance from settlement means conditional token liquidity remains minimal.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.