Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris temperature contract as a near-certainty: the crowd-implied probability is 0% on the YES side, with the market effectively pointing to the lower temperature bands rather than a late heat spike. The contract settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, and it resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport between the market’s settlement window and the final Wunderground daily history reading for 22 May.

That reading sits in the context of a late-May Paris climate that is usually mild rather than hot. Long-run averages put Paris May highs around 20°C, with typical daily highs moving from the low 20s Celsius early in the month towards the mid-20s later on; WeatherSpark notes that highs in May rarely exceed 26°C, though short warm spells are not unusual. Recent Polymarket pricing on adjacent days shows how quickly these contracts can move with fresh forecast data: the 21 May market resolved at 24°C, while the 22 May market has had 28°C and 29°C as the frontrunners in some recent snapshots. That contrast is a reminder that even within a stable climate, a single afternoon’s peak can shift the outcome by one band.

For traders, the key catalysts are the usual ones for a same-day weather market: updated model runs, any change in cloud cover or wind direction, and whether the airport station records its peak early or late in the day. In Paris, late-May warmth can build quickly during sunny spells, but passing showers or a cooler maritime flow can cap the high well below the upper bands. The final settlement source is Wunderground’s Paris-Le Bourget history page, so the practical watchpoint is the highest confirmed station temperature once the daily data are finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.