Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle this market into one of several temperature bands. Polymarket currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's distance and the absence of any locked-in forecast data. The contract trades on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens representing each temperature range; resolution depends on historical data published by Weather Underground for that specific station and date.

May temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 15–22°C, though extremes occasionally exceed this band. The station's records show that May 25 historically averages around 18–19°C, with recorded highs stretching into the mid-20s during warmer years. The 0% pricing reflects pure temporal uncertainty rather than any structural market failure; traders cannot reasonably forecast spring weather eighteen months ahead, and no seasonal pattern or climate model carries sufficient predictive weight at this distance.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates as May 2026 approaches, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Broader climate patterns—including Atlantic oscillation indices and spring warming trends—may become relevant within two to three months of the settlement date. Le Bourget's urban heat island effect and its location on Paris's northern edge mean that city-centre heat waves occasionally miss the airport station, a distinction worth noting when comparing this market to generalised Paris temperature contracts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.