Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES, indicating the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful odds. Settlement hinges on historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. Traders are effectively pricing uncertainty about spring weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest roughly eighteen months forward.

Seattle's May temperatures historically cluster between 65–75°F, with records showing highs occasionally reaching the low 80s during warmer years. The city's maritime climate moderates extreme swings; May 1992 recorded 89°F, whilst May 2008 peaked at 79°F. These historical bounds provide calibration points for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine probability versus those priced speculatively. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market is nascent, with traders awaiting either seasonal forecasting updates or increased participation to generate differentiated pricing across the available ranges.

Catalysts for this market centre on long-range weather forecasting refinement as May 2026 approaches. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, typically issued three months in advance, will inform trader positioning around late February 2026. Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies—particularly El Niño or La Niña patterns—influence Northwest spring conditions and warrant monitoring through winter 2025–26. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean traders holding positions must maintain USDC collateral throughout the settlement window, creating carry considerations for longer-dated positions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.