Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's early June weather sits at the threshold between spring and summer, with daily highs typically ranging from 23°C to 28°C depending on atmospheric patterns and moisture influx from the Korean Peninsula's surrounding seas. The settlement mechanism tracks the single highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 1 June 2026, resolved through Wunderground's historical weather database. Current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will contain the day's peak.

Historical June 1st data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variance. The station has recorded highs ranging from 18°C on unusually cool years to 32°C during early heat waves, with a 30-year median around 25–26°C. This spread explains why traders face genuine difficulty calibrating probabilities—a single day's outcome depends heavily on whether a high-pressure system dominates or whether monsoon moisture arrives early. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than conviction that extreme temperatures are impossible.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in late May, particularly their assessment of early East Asian summer monsoon onset timing. Any significant atmospheric blocking pattern or heat dome formation over Northeast Asia in the weeks preceding June would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges. Current conditions and spring weather trajectories will become clearer as May progresses, providing concrete data points for position adjustment before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.