Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices this event at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on Polygon against USDC, with settlement determined by historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date and location.

Seoul's June temperatures typically range between 20°C and 28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. Historical precedent matters here: June 2022 saw Seoul reach 32.4°C mid-month, whilst June 2020 peaked at 29.8°C. The airport station's readings often run slightly cooler than central Seoul due to its coastal proximity, a factor that should anchor expectations downward relative to city-centre forecasts. The 0% pricing suggests the market may be awaiting resolution or reflecting a consensus view that falls outside the available temperature bands entirely.

South Korea's meteorological agency typically issues seasonal outlooks by late May, with extended forecasts becoming more reliable from early June onwards. The East Asian summer monsoon's timing and intensity—influenced by Pacific and Indian Ocean conditions—will be the primary driver of June 17th's conditions. Any significant weather announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration between now and mid-June could shift trader positioning, particularly if they signal an early or unusually intense heat episode for the peninsula.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.