Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5?

Market context

On 5 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against predefined Celsius ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES, reflecting the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on Polygon using USDC, with settlement contingent on Wunderground historical data for that specific station and date.

Early June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C as the region transitions into summer monsoon season. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows considerable year-to-year variation; June 2023 recorded peaks near 30°C during heat waves, whilst cooler years remained in the mid-20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests minimal trading activity rather than consensus that extreme temperatures are impossible, a common pattern for weather markets far from settlement.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically released 10–14 days before the target date. Pacific typhoon activity in late May or early June could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau drive heat waves. The East Asian summer monsoon onset timing—usually mid-June but occasionally earlier—represents the primary catalyst affecting temperature ranges. Real-time atmospheric conditions become more predictable within 7 days of settlement, when ensemble models converge on likely outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.