Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

The market currently prices a 0% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on 7 June 2026 will fall into the specified range, with traders on Polygon holding conditional tokens that settle against Wunderground's historical weather data for Incheon International Airport. This extreme underpricing reflects either a technical issue with the market's range parameters or genuine conviction that the settlement threshold lies outside realistic bounds for early summer conditions in South Korea.

Seoul's June temperatures have historically clustered between 22°C and 28°C as daily highs, with occasional excursions toward 30°C during heat waves. The 2020 and 2023 early-June periods saw highs of 26–27°C at Incheon, whilst the exceptionally warm June 2018 recorded 29°C on the 7th itself. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be interpreting the range boundaries as either implausibly narrow or positioned above the 95th percentile of historical outcomes for this date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, which typically issue 10-day outlooks by late May. La Niña or El Niño conditions could shift June temperatures meaningfully; the current neutral phase offers no obvious directional bias. Additionally, any technical clarification from Polymarket regarding the exact temperature ranges available for settlement would likely trigger repricing, as the current 0% probability suggests the market may be awaiting resolution of ambiguity in the contract's range specifications rather than reflecting genuine weather expectations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.