Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Market context

Seoul's early June weather sits at a transitional point between spring and summer, with the city typically experiencing warming trends as it approaches the monsoon season. On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine this market's settlement, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather data. The current 0% probability on Polymarket suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity in this contract, leaving conditional token positions on USDC/Polygon potentially mispriced relative to Seoul's actual climatology.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on 8 June ranged from approximately 22°C to 29°C, with most years clustering between 24°C and 27°C. The 2023 reading was 26.5°C, whilst 2022 recorded 25.1°C. This historical spread indicates the market's resolution is far from predetermined—multiple temperature bands carry genuine probability weight based on seasonal patterns alone.

The primary catalyst affecting Seoul's temperature on that date will be the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon activity. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts five to ten days ahead of the target date, providing traders with updated atmospheric models. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months could shift baseline temperatures upward or downward, though June 2026 conditions remain too distant for reliable seasonal forecasting at present.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.