Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

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Market context

On 23 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token architecture initialises contracts before meaningful trading volume arrives. Once traders begin depositing USDC and minting position tokens on Polygon, the probability distribution will sharpen around seasonal expectations for late May in the Seoul metropolitan area.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show a median high of approximately 24–26°C, with extremes ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 32°C during heat waves. The 2018 May heatwave pushed temperatures above 30°C on multiple days, whilst cooler springs have kept highs below 20°C. This 14°C spread across recent decades illustrates the seasonal volatility traders must account for; late May sits at the threshold between spring and early summer weather patterns in South Korea, making it sensitive to both lingering cool air masses and advancing subtropical warmth.

The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early May, with refinements arriving in the week preceding settlement. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence East Asian weather patterns significantly; current climate indices and any updated seasonal outlooks from KMA will be key catalysts for repricing. Traders should monitor whether May 2026 develops under a ridge of high pressure—favourable for warmer readings—or under a trough pattern that could suppress temperatures. Settlement closes at 12:00 UTC on 23 May, giving traders until the afternoon to adjust positions based on morning observations from Incheon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.