Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Seoul will record a maximum temperature at Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the official measurement point for the city's weather data. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 0% for any outcome, reflecting either a technical settlement issue or minimal trading activity rather than genuine certainty about the day's conditions. Traders are betting in USDC on Polygon across temperature bands, with conditional tokens determining payouts once Wunderground finalises the historical record for that date.

Late May in Seoul typically falls within spring's transition toward early summer, with historical highs clustering between 24°C and 28°C depending on weather patterns. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery. Comparable May days at Incheon show variability: the airport recorded 26.9°C on 25 May 2023 and 27.2°C on 25 May 2024, establishing a baseline for what constitutes a typical versus anomalous reading for this calendar date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track South Korean meteorological forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Spring weather patterns in Northeast Asia remain sensitive to Pacific anticyclone positioning and Siberian cold air intrusions, both of which shift substantially week-to-week. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical database pull from Incheon station records, making data availability the primary dependency once the date passes and the window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.