Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 0% across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity establishing a floor. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that single day, with the conditional token mechanics on Polygon requiring USDC collateral to purchase shares in whichever temperature range ultimately resolves TRUE.

Seoul's late May climate sits at a seasonal inflection point. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows average highs around 24–26°C for late May, though the city regularly experiences days exceeding 28°C during early summer heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 May records at Incheon show variability: some years peak near 30°C whilst others remain in the low-to-mid 20s depending on monsoon influence and high-pressure systems. This natural volatility typically anchors prediction markets for Seoul's May temperatures in the 25–29°C bands rather than extremes.

Traders should monitor the Asian summer monsoon onset timing and any El Niño or La Niña patterns affecting Northeast Asia in spring 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks roughly three months ahead; their April 2026 forecast will be the most relevant catalyst for repricing. Additionally, real-time weather models from late May will sharpen probability distributions as the settlement date approaches. The 0% current pricing suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or consensus forecasting input to establish meaningful odds at this distance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.