Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and measured in Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market conviction about the underlying weather event. This pricing disconnect creates a baseline problem: traders cannot meaningfully assess whether the crowd believes Seoul will experience unusually cold, typical, or hot conditions that day.

Seoul's late May climate sits firmly in early summer territory. Historical data from Incheon shows May highs typically range between 24°C and 28°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during warmer years. The 0% probability across all bands suggests the market may not have activated properly or lacks sufficient liquidity to establish genuine price discovery. Without comparable recent trades or volume data, assessing whether this reflects genuine uncertainty or market dysfunction remains difficult. Traders should verify the contract's operational status on Polygon before committing capital.

The relevant catalyst is the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecast, typically released in late April, which will provide confidence intervals for May–June temperatures across the Korean peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could shift Seoul's expected range materially. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical data for Incheon against the KMA's official records to confirm settlement methodology before the 31 May 12:00 UTC window closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.