Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Shanghai Pudong International Airport temperature contract at 0% for YES, so the market is effectively saying no meaningful chance is being assigned to the targeted outcome in the relevant range. Because settlement is based on the day’s recorded high at the airport station, the key question is not the citywide feel, but whether the official reading lands in the specific Celsius band before the window closes at 12:00 UTC, with USDC held on Polygon and the contract resolved through conditional tokens once the Wunderground history page is final.

For context, Shanghai in May is usually a mild-to-warm shoulder-season market rather than a true heat extreme. Comparable weather references put average May highs broadly in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with typical ranges around 18°C to 25°C, and the city’s daily peak often clustering near 21°C to 26°C. That makes the contract sensitive to a modest warm-up rather than an exceptional heat event. On a trading basis, a 0% implied price usually means the order book is empty at the bid or that participants see the relevant band as highly unlikely, but it can also reflect thin liquidity rather than a strong weather signal.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates for Shanghai Pudong Airport, any late shifts in cloud cover, rainfall or marine airflow, and whether early-day heating can translate into the official midday-to-afternoon high before settlement. AccuWeather’s May 2026 outlook has pointed to highs generally in the upper 20s Celsius at times, while seasonal guides still frame May as warm but variable, with rainfall and humidity increasing into late spring. Traders will also watch the Wunderground station feed itself, since the contract resolves on the recorded airport maximum, not a broader city estimate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.