Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 25 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Wunderground once the calendar date closes, converting the highest recorded temperature into a categorical outcome. Current Polymarket pricing reflects near-zero conviction across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about late-May conditions in Shanghai's subtropical climate.

Late May sits within Shanghai's late spring period, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though outlier heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Historical precedent matters here: the city recorded 40.9°C in July 2022 during an exceptional heatwave, yet May temperatures rarely exceed 33°C in standard years. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year May archives shows most days cluster in the 26–31°C band, with occasional spikes to 34–35°C during early summer heat surges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating this as a low-conviction market with sparse order flow.

Monitoring China's meteorological forecasts from late April onwards will signal whether anomalous heat patterns are developing. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence East Asian weather systems months in advance, and any official alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding May heat events would shift market expectations. Additionally, real-time weather model updates from mid-May—particularly European and American ensemble forecasts—typically show greater precision for specific daily temperatures, potentially triggering late-stage trading activity as settlement approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.