Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either a technical issue with market initialisation or extreme uncertainty about which range will contain the day's peak. Polymarket's conditional token architecture means traders are purchasing USDC-denominated positions on Polygon that will resolve to either 1.0 or 0.0 depending on where Wunderground's historical data places that maximum reading.

Shenzhen's June climate sits firmly within its hot season, with average highs around 31–32°C and occasional peaks exceeding 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows June 11th temperatures have ranged between 28°C and 34°C at Bao'an station, with no extreme outliers recorded on this specific date. The 0% pricing across all bands is anomalous given this consistent historical pattern and suggests the market may not have attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery yet.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Shenzhen's subtropical climate. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June can occasionally push temperatures lower through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems are relatively uncommon at this stage of the season. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, requiring traders to monitor Wunderground's historical records shortly after the calendar day concludes in China Standard Time.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.