Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 4 June 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Bao'an International Airport Station. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting either incomplete liquidity or a technical settlement state rather than genuine uncertainty about whether the day will occur or temperatures will be recordable. Traders holding conditional tokens tied to this contract are effectively betting on resolution mechanics functioning as specified through Wunderground's historical data portal.

Early June sits within Shenzhen's transition into summer monsoon season. Historical patterns show daily highs typically ranging between 28–34°C during this period, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may lack active participants pricing genuine forecast variance, or reflects a settlement window that hasn't yet attracted substantive trading volume. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket often show compressed probabilities until within 48–72 hours of the event, when meteorological forecasts narrow and traders commit USDC across Polygon-based conditional token pairs.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for tropical system activity in the South China Sea during late May and early June, which could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late May; any alerts for above-normal heat or typhoon approaches would shift market pricing materially. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for Shenzhen Bao'an, which has maintained consistent records, though traders should verify data availability before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.