Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board, suggesting either a technical issue with the market's display or extremely thin liquidity. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date itself—meaning traders must commit capital before the day's peak temperature is known.

Shenzhen's June climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during early summer. The city sits in a subtropical zone where monsoon patterns begin influencing weather patterns by this time of year, occasionally pushing temperatures above 36°C during heat waves. Comparable June days at Bao'an Airport over the past decade show the 33–35°C range as most frequent, though outlier days exceeding 36°C occur roughly once every 2–3 years. The current 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market may not yet have attracted sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early June, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or tropical systems. Typhoon season activity, whilst typically peaking later in summer, can occasionally influence June weather patterns. The specific data point—highest temperature at the airport station rather than city-centre readings—matters, as airport locations sometimes record marginally different conditions than urban areas due to surface characteristics and wind exposure.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.