Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC once the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the resolution date.

May temperatures in Shenzhen typically range between 28–34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during early summer heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat days (above 36°C) occur roughly once every two to three years in May, whilst readings below 26°C are rare. The airport station's location in the coastal Bao'an district moderates temperatures slightly compared to inland areas, though urban heat effects remain significant. Current zero probability pricing suggests the market lacks sufficient liquidity or participant conviction to establish meaningful odds, making this contract sensitive to early position-taking.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in April and early May, particularly any alerts from China's National Meteorological Centre regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. The East Asian summer monsoon transition typically begins in late May, which can either suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover or intensify heat through stalled high-pressure systems. Real-time forecast updates from Wunderground itself will become increasingly reliable from mid-May onwards, creating potential repricing opportunities as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.