Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and settled against historical records via Wunderground. The current market pricing reflects near-zero conviction in any single temperature band, suggesting traders are either awaiting seasonal forecasts or treating this as a genuine toss-up across multiple ranges. On Polygon, USDC holders can take positions across conditional token pairs representing different temperature brackets, with settlement occurring once the airport's official high is recorded and finalised on the resolution source.

Late May sits within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon transition period, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the same station shows considerable year-to-year variation; 2023 recorded 31°C on this date, whilst 2022 saw 29°C. The absence of strong crowd conviction suggests the market lacks a clear consensus on whether 2026 will track towards the cooler or warmer end of the seasonal norm, leaving substantial uncertainty across multiple temperature bands.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts released in April and early May, which typically indicate whether the region faces above or below-average temperatures for the period. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift probabilities materially, as these patterns influence East Asian summer onset timing and intensity. Real-time weather models become increasingly reliable within two weeks of the settlement date, so meaningful probability shifts are likely to occur between mid-May and the resolution window closing on 26 May at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.