Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, Shenzhen will experience late spring weather as the city transitions toward its hot, humid summer season. The highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day will determine which range this market settles into. Currently priced at 0% YES across all temperature brackets on Polymarket, the contract reflects either extreme uncertainty about which specific range will validate or a technical pricing anomaly—USDC settlement on Polygon means traders are locking conditional tokens against outcomes that the crowd has effectively left unpriced.

Shenzhen's May climatology provides the baseline for reading current odds. Historical data shows late May temperatures typically peak between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions toward 33–35°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 May records at Bao'an show consistent patterns: highs clustering in the 30–32°C band roughly 60% of the time, with 15–20% of days reaching 33°C or above. The 0% pricing suggests either no liquidity has formed around this distant May date or traders are avoiding commitment until seasonal forecasts sharpen considerably closer to the event window.

Monitoring China's meteorological authority (CMA) seasonal outlooks and the Western Pacific typhoon season trajectory will matter substantially. If a pre-monsoon high-pressure system establishes itself over southern China in late May 2026, temperatures could spike toward 34–36°C; conversely, early tropical cyclone activity or cloud cover could suppress peaks toward 26–28°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 May, giving traders roughly 18 months to accumulate information before conditional tokens resolve against Wunderground's historical records.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.