Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical data from Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or traders awaiting clearer forecasting conditions as the date approaches. This contract trades on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens representing each temperature bracket, allowing traders to hedge exposure to specific thermal outcomes across the settlement window.

Shenzhen's late May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical data showing typical highs between 28°C and 33°C during this period. The city experiences increasing humidity and occasional pre-monsoon rainfall that can suppress temperatures, though heat waves are not uncommon. Comparable years provide limited predictive power given year-to-year variability driven by subtropical pressure systems and the South China Sea's thermal influence. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine certainty about outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts from May onwards, particularly the development of the Pacific anticyclone and any early monsoon activity affecting southern China. Shenzhen's airport station readings are sensitive to local wind patterns and urban heat effects, making the specific measurement location material to resolution. As settlement approaches, meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models will sharpen expectations, potentially triggering liquidity and price discovery across the temperature bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.