Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's daily high temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport, the nation's primary meteorological station. The settlement mechanism resolves to Wunderground's historical data for that specific date, converting the peak reading into a Celsius range. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty—this is typical for weather contracts opened well in advance of the event window.

May sits within Singapore's inter-monsoon period, historically producing daily highs between 31–34°C at Changi, though extremes have reached 35°C during anomalously hot years. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests minimal liquidity and early-stage price discovery; comparable weather markets on Polymarket typically see meaningful probability shifts only in the final fortnight before settlement. Historical records from the Meteorological Service Singapore show May 2015 and May 2016 recorded peaks of 34.4°C and 34.3°C respectively, establishing a baseline for traders evaluating tail-risk brackets above 35°C.

Traders should monitor the El Niño/La Niña cycle through early 2026, as the Indian Ocean Dipole phase influences monsoon intensity and regional heat patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, after which Wunderground's finalised daily high becomes binding. Any significant atmospheric anomalies—tropical systems, unusual pressure patterns, or sustained heat waves across Southeast Asia—would typically emerge in weather forecasts 7–10 days prior, creating the primary catalyst for conditional token repricing on Polygon.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.