Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, after which the highest temperature reading for the full calendar day becomes final. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting the market's nascent stage roughly seven months before the event; as the date approaches and meteorological forecasts solidify, conditional token prices will adjust to reflect expected conditions.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima. Historical records from Changi show May temperatures typically peak between 31–34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of May days over the past two decades. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests minimal trading activity rather than genuine certainty about the outcome; comparable weather markets on Polymarket tend to see meaningful volume only within 4–6 weeks of settlement as traders incorporate seasonal patterns and real-time forecasts into their USDC positions on Polygon.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the onset of the southwest monsoon season, which influences May rainfall and cloud cover across the region. The Meteorological Department of Singapore typically issues monthly outlooks in late April that provide guidance on temperature and precipitation anomalies. Any significant El Niño or La Niña signals from NOAA forecasts released in the months prior could shift expected maxima by 1–2°C, creating arbitrage opportunities as conditional token prices eventually reflect these shifts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.