Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date, with the market currently pricing all temperature bands at 0% implied probability—a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token architecture initialises contracts before meaningful trading volume arrives. This reflects the market's nascent state rather than any genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded.

Taipei's late May weather patterns show consistent seasonal behaviour. Historical data from the past decade indicates maximum temperatures in this period typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional spikes toward 35°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 May records for the same station provide the most relevant comparable cases; neither year saw extreme outliers that would push settlement into the highest-defined ranges. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal monsoon dynamics suggest May 2026 will follow established norms, though traders should note that individual daily variation remains substantial even within predictable seasonal windows.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the actual weather event itself, which remains subject to real-time atmospheric conditions. Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical weather systems and heat dome formations in the weeks preceding late May, as these represent the main mechanisms for pushing temperatures into upper ranges. Wunderground's historical data feed, the designated resolution source, updates daily and will be finalised by the settlement window closure on 26 May at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.