Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is effectively pricing a Tokyo Haneda maximum that stays in the lowest temperature band, with the contract showing a 0% crowd-implied chance on the higher ranges. The market settles against the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 22 May, so the key question is not the average day but the day’s peak reading before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. On-chain, traders are holding conditional tokens funded in USDC on Polygon, so the live price reflects only how participants value the weather outcome, not any off-chain discretion.

For context, late-May Tokyo is usually mild rather than hot. Long-run guides put average daytime highs around 23°C, while more Tokyo-specific May summaries place temperatures roughly in the mid-teens to low-20s Celsius, with cool mornings and evenings still common. That matters because the market can only resolve to the temperature band containing the day’s actual maximum, and a cooler, cloudier day can keep the final reading several degrees below seasonal norms. A 0% yes price therefore implies traders see the chance of a meaningful late-day warm-up as negligible.

The main variables to watch are the near-term forecast updates and whether sunshine breaks through after morning cloud or rain. Wunderground’s daily history page for RJTT is the settlement source, so any late changes in the forecast for Tokyo Haneda, especially around frontal systems or post-rain clearing, are the relevant catalysts. If the day remains overcast and stable, the realised high is more likely to sit near the lower end of the month’s usual range; if skies brighten, the airport’s maximum can climb quickly even without a broader heat event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.