Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

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Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 23 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The current market pricing reflects zero demand for outcomes above 30°C, despite May typically bringing warm conditions to the Kanto region. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing each outcome bracket. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning forecasts clarify the day's trajectory.

May temperatures at Haneda historically cluster between 20–27°C, with extremes rare but documented. The 2023 maximum for 23 May reached 25.1°C; the 2022 figure was 24.8°C. Anomalously warm May days—pushing above 28°C—occur roughly once per five years in Tokyo's records, typically driven by early-season heat domes or southerly wind patterns. The zero probability currently assigned to higher brackets suggests traders are pricing in a median expectation near historical norms, leaving potential value in tail outcomes if seasonal forecasts shift toward above-average warmth.

Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, typically released in late April, will be the primary catalyst for repricing. Any official guidance toward warmer-than-normal conditions in May could trigger movement toward higher temperature brackets. Additionally, the North Pacific subtropical high's positioning in early May—observable through satellite and pressure-pattern data—will signal whether Haneda experiences typical spring conditions or early summer heat. Traders should monitor these signals from mid-April onwards, as the settlement date approaches with limited opportunity for late adjustments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.