Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Tokyo will record its highest temperature of the day at Haneda Airport Station, measured in Celsius. The settlement mechanism uses Wunderground's historical weather data, with the exact figure falling into one of several predefined ranges. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature brackets, suggesting traders are either awaiting clarity on the resolution methodology or treating this as a placeholder market ahead of the May 2026 settlement window.

Tokyo's late May temperatures typically range between 24–28°C, based on thirty years of historical records from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty rather than confidence that no temperature will be recorded; more likely, traders are waiting for the market to mature and for competing brackets to establish relative pricing. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket show similar patterns during the pre-season phase, with probabilities clustering only once the settlement date approaches within weeks rather than months.

The key dependency for this market is confirmation that Wunderground's Haneda Airport Station data remains the authoritative source through May 2026. Traders should monitor any changes to Japan's weather monitoring infrastructure or Wunderground's data partnerships. Additionally, El Niño or La Niña patterns developing through early 2026 could shift seasonal temperature expectations; the Japan Meteorological Agency typically issues seasonal outlooks in April, providing concrete guidance for late-May forecasts. Until then, the market's zero probability likely reflects the absence of actionable information rather than genuine market conviction.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.