Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against defined Celsius ranges. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% probability across the board, reflecting the extreme distance of the settlement date—nearly eighteen months forward—and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events beyond seasonal norms. This flat pricing structure is typical for weather markets settling far in the future on Polygon, where liquidity pools remain shallow until nearer the event window.

Tokyo's May temperatures historically cluster between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. The city's average high in late May sits around 25°C, though the 2010s saw increasing frequency of anomalously warm springs driven by shifting pressure systems. Examining comparable May settlements from prior years at Haneda provides the most reliable calibration: the airport recorded 29.8°C on 26 May 2015 and 27.1°C on the same date in 2019. These precedents suggest the market's current zero-probability distribution will sharpen considerably once April 2026 approaches and seasonal forecasting models gain predictive power.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency announcements in April and May 2026, particularly any alerts regarding early monsoon activity or high-pressure systems tracking toward the Kanto region. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 will influence spring temperature trajectories. The settlement source—Wunderground's historical data for Haneda—is publicly accessible and typically finalised within 48 hours of the settlement window closing, reducing dispute risk common in weather markets.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.