Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's weather on 24 May 2026 will be measured against historical May conditions at Pearson International Airport, where late spring typically brings mild to warm daytime temperatures. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical records for that specific date, with the highest recorded temperature determining which range resolves YES. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 0% across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete market depth or that traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing USDC to conditional tokens on Polygon.

May temperatures in Toronto historically cluster between 15°C and 24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. The 0% probability across all ranges reflects the market's current state rather than meteorological impossibility—late May can produce days exceeding 25°C, particularly during high-pressure systems that occasionally settle over southern Ontario. Comparable years show variability: May 2022 saw a peak of 28.5°C, whilst May 2023 remained cooler at around 20°C. This historical spread indicates that any single temperature band carries genuine uncertainty rather than negligible risk.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal forecasting updates from Environment Canada, typically issued 10–14 days before the settlement date. Atmospheric patterns in early May 2026 will signal whether warm air masses are likely to reach the region by late month. The absence of current liquidity suggests the market may activate only as May approaches, when meteorological confidence improves and traders can better assess whether anomalous heat or cooler conditions are probable.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.