Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily high temperature in Celsius, with that figure determining which range bracket resolves YES. The market currently prices all temperature bands at zero probability on Polygon, suggesting either technical settlement delays or genuine uncertainty about which range will validate. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on the day itself—a tight constraint for traders monitoring real-time airport observations.

Wellington's May climate sits firmly in autumn, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 13–16°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests traders are either waiting for closer-to-date forecasting models or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation. Comparable May days at Wellington Airport show considerable variance: cool southerly flows can suppress temperatures to single digits, whilst northerly wind patterns occasionally push readings into the low 20s. This natural variability typically produces a spread of outcomes rather than clustering in a single band.

The key catalyst is the release of meteorological forecasts in late May, particularly from MetService (New Zealand's national weather authority) and international models like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Large-scale pressure systems developing over the Tasman Sea in the weeks prior will shape whether anticyclonic conditions deliver mild conditions or whether a trough brings cooler air. Traders should monitor Southern Hemisphere seasonal patterns and any unusual atmospheric circulation anomalies flagged by meteorological services closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.