Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

Tokyo's lowest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The market currently prices a 4% probability that this minimum will fall below 15°C, implying traders expect mild late-spring conditions. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with settlement occurring once the 24-hour period closes at 12:00 UTC.

May in Tokyo typically sees daily lows between 15–18°C as the city transitions toward early summer. Historical data from recent years shows temperatures below 15°C are uncommon but not unprecedented during this window; a cold front or unseasonal weather system can push minimums into the 12–14°C range. The 4% pricing reflects base-rate expectations for normal seasonal progression rather than an anomalous cold snap, suggesting the market treats sub-15°C outcomes as tail-risk events.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 24 May, particularly any alerts for unusual pressure systems or cold air masses moving southward from Siberia. Spring weather patterns in the Western Pacific can shift rapidly; the Japan Meteorological Corporation typically updates extended forecasts five to ten days in advance. Any significant revision toward cooler conditions would likely move the probability upward, though the settlement window's proximity to the event date limits the window for major forecast revisions to influence pricing materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.