Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability across the board on Polygon, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine uncertainty about whether the city will experience measurable heat that day. Traders are staking USDC against conditional tokens that resolve based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

Beijing's June temperatures historically cluster between 25°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during early summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all brackets is anomalous given that the city has recorded temperatures in the 20–30°C range on 4 June in most recent years; the market structure itself suggests no outcome has attracted meaningful liquidity or conviction yet. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket typically see probability mass distributed across multiple temperature bands once trading activity begins, reflecting genuine seasonal variance rather than certainty about any single outcome.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June 2026, giving traders roughly eighteen months to monitor seasonal forecasts and historical patterns. Key variables include the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon onset and any anomalous atmospheric patterns reported by China Meteorological Administration in late May 2026. Early June weather in Beijing remains sensitive to subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward, which can drive temperatures sharply upward or suppress them depending on cloud cover and wind patterns.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.