Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or that traders have not yet begun positioning ahead of the settlement window. Resolution will depend on historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station and date, with the settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on 4 June.

Guangzhou's June climate is consistently hot and humid, with average daily highs around 31–32°C during early summer. Historical records from the past decade show temperatures in the 28–35°C range are typical for this period, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any expectation of anomalous conditions; similar weather markets typically see meaningful price discovery only within 7–10 days of the settlement date, when meteorological forecasts become more reliable and traders begin converting conditional tokens (YES/NO pairs) into USDC positions on Polygon.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña developments affecting East Asian weather patterns in spring 2026. Real-time liquidity will likely emerge in late May, when 10-day forecasts from major services (ECMWF, GFS) provide actionable temperature ranges. The settlement mechanism—conditional tokens redeemable only against verified Weather Underground data—means accuracy of the underlying station's reporting is the sole dependency; no discretionary interpretation applies.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.