Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius, measured to one decimal place. That single reading will determine which temperature band this contract settles into. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 0% across all outcome ranges, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a technical artefact in the order book; no meaningful probability mass has accumulated on any temperature threshold ahead of the settlement window closing at noon UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly in the pre-monsoon season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29°C and 33°C. The Observatory's records from the past five years show June 11 specifically has seen highs of 31.3°C (2023), 30.8°C (2022), and 32.1°C (2021), clustering around the low 31°C mark. Extreme heat events pushing above 34°C are possible but rare in early June; the territory's hottest June days usually arrive later in the month as the southwest monsoon establishes itself. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms suggest moderate warmth rather than exceptional heat.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data in its "Daily Extract" reports, typically finalised within 48 hours of observation. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website from 12 June onwards for the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure. No advance forecasts or weather alerts will definitively predict the exact reading, as daily maxima depend on precise atmospheric conditions and urban heat effects across Hong Kong Island and the New Territories. The resolution hinges entirely on the Observatory's instrumental record, with no discretion or adjustment mechanisms.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.