Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market currently prices a 0% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will fall into any single range bracket, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which band will resolve or minimal trading activity. Settlement hinges on the daily maximum recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station, with Wunderground serving as the authoritative source. Traders need to convert between Celsius and Fahrenheit via the platform's settings to match their preferred scale against the conditional token structure on Polygon.

Seoul's early-to-mid June climate shows consistent patterns across recent years. Historical data from 2015 to 2024 reveals maximum temperatures in this period typically range between 24°C and 29°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during anomalously warm years. The 2018 heatwave pushed June highs to 32°C in some locations, though airport station readings tend to run slightly cooler than city centre measurements. This historical band provides the baseline against which current market pricing should be calibrated.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the East Asian monsoon system's timing and intensity in early June 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late May, which traders should monitor for any signals of early heat waves or cooler-than-average patterns. Additionally, the North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning in early June will determine whether warm continental air masses dominate the peninsula. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through spring 2026 could shift seasonal temperature expectations, though such signals remain months away from confirmation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.