Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Shanghai will record its highest daily temperature at Pudong International Airport Station, measured in Celsius. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES on Polymarket, meaning traders are pricing conditional tokens reflecting near-zero conviction in any single temperature band emerging as the settlement figure. This flat pricing across all brackets suggests genuine uncertainty about which range will capture the day's peak, rather than consensus that a particular threshold is implausible.

Shanghai's June weather sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical data from Pudong showing mean highs around 28–30°C during early June, though readings regularly exceed 32°C. The city experiences monsoon influence and occasional heat waves during this period; the 2013 heat event saw temperatures reach 37°C in early June, whilst cooler years have produced peaks near 25°C. Recent years show increasing volatility, with 2023 recording 35°C on 2 June and 2022 peaking at 31°C on the same date. This historical spread—from 25°C to 37°C across comparable dates—explains why traders have not concentrated bets into any single range.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically offer 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Subtropical pressure systems and tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during May–June can significantly alter Shanghai's weather trajectory. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, requiring traders to resolve positions against Wunderground's historical records for that specific station within hours of the day's conclusion.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.