Highest temperature in Taipei on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either minimal liquidity or that traders have not yet positioned ahead of this specific date. Settlement will depend on historical temperature data from Wunderground, with the contract resolving to whichever range captures the actual daily maximum.

Taipei's June weather patterns show consistent heat and humidity. Historical data from Songshan Airport indicates June highs typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing across all brackets is unusual given that June temperatures in Taipei are predictable within established bounds; comparable weather markets on Polymarket generally show distributed probabilities across plausible ranges rather than uniform zeros. This suggests the market may lack sufficient trading volume or that conditional token mechanics on Polygon have not yet attracted weather traders to this particular contract.

Traders monitoring this market should track Taiwan's meteorological forecasts as June approaches, particularly any alerts from the Central Weather Administration regarding heat waves or monsoon patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 June, giving traders a narrow window to react to actual conditions. Recent tropical activity in the Western Pacific can influence Taiwan's weather systems; any significant storm systems or pressure anomalies in late May would warrant attention before final positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.