Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature band resolving true. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure, measured to one decimal place, which will appear in their Daily Extract once finalised. Until that data is released, the market cannot resolve, creating a hard dependency on official meteorological reporting.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32°C historically, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing across all temperature bands suggests either extreme market fragmentation—with traders holding positions across multiple ranges—or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the actual reading. Comparable June days from recent years show variability: the Observatory's climate records indicate that whilst 30–32°C is modal for early June, outlier days do occur, particularly if a tropical system approaches or high-pressure systems dominate.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in late May or early June 2026, as these directly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead; any unusual atmospheric setup flagged then could shift market expectations. Additionally, the exact settlement date—12:00 UTC on 7 June—aligns with Hong Kong's afternoon, when daily highs typically manifest, so no intraday timing ambiguity exists once the Observatory publishes its final figure.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.