Highest temperature in London on June 19?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** right now, which means traders are assigning no visible chance that the London City Airport Station’s highest recorded temperature on 19 June lands in the market’s YES range. Settlement depends on the Wunderground daily history page for EGLL? no, EGLC, with the day’s *maximum* temperature, and the contract only resolves once the first data for the following date has been published there. Because the payoff is tied to a single station reading in degrees Celsius, the market is really a bet on one localised daily high, not on London weather in general.

For context, late-June London highs usually sit in the low 20s Celsius, with occasional warmer spikes when a ridge builds over southern England. That means the most relevant historical comparison is not average June weather but the frequency of days that push into the upper 20s at London airports, where sea-breeze effects and cloud cover can cap the peak even when the broader region feels hot. A 0% print can therefore reflect either genuine confidence in a cooler outcome or simple illiquidity in a market where a one-day temperature range is narrowly defined.

For traders, the key catalysts are the Met Office and private-forecast updates on daytime heating, cloud, wind direction and any frontal passages affecting southeast England, because those factors move the London City Airport peak more than overnight minima. The settlement clock also matters: once the day is over, the remaining question is only the final published Wunderground high. On-chain, positions are held as USDC collateral on Polygon and represented by conditional tokens, so the main practical risk is not just the weather call but the exact range that the final airport observation falls into.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.