Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several bracketed ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's inability to price a future weather event with meaningful conviction this far out—roughly eighteen months ahead—rather than any genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded that day. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data feed for KLGA, the official National Weather Service observation point for New York City's primary airport, making the resolution source both transparent and immutable once the day passes.

New York's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical June 11 temperatures at LaGuardia span from lows near 65°F to highs exceeding 85°F, with the thirty-year average daily maximum around 78°F. Anomalously warm June days—pushing into the low 90s—occur roughly once every five to seven years across the region, whilst genuinely cool June 11ths below 70°F remain uncommon but plausible during years when Atlantic systems dominate. The 0% pricing likely reflects traders' reluctance to commit capital to weather prediction at such distance rather than any meteorological certainty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in April and May 2026, which typically offer directional guidance on whether the broader June period will run warmer or cooler than normal. Real-time catalysts will emerge only in the final week, when operational weather models gain sufficient skill to suggest whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic troughs will influence the city on that specific date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.