Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with traders currently pricing a 99% probability that the market resolves YES—meaning the temperature will exceed the lowest threshold. The settlement hinges entirely on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, with the window closing at midday UTC. Polymarket's conditional token structure means traders holding YES tokens on Polygon will receive their USDC payout only if the recorded high clears the threshold, whilst NO holders forfeit their stake.

New York City's June climate patterns provide the baseline for interpreting this extreme confidence. Historical records show LaGuardia averages a high of 79°F (26°C) in mid-June, with readings typically ranging between 70°F and 88°F. The station has recorded temperatures exceeding 90°F on roughly one in four June days over the past three decades, and temperatures below 65°F occur in fewer than 5% of cases. The 99% YES pricing suggests traders view the lowest threshold as substantially below historical norms—likely in the 50s or low 60s Fahrenheit range—making it statistically improbable that June 12 would produce an anomalous cold snap.

The primary variable affecting this market is Atlantic weather systems in early June 2026. Tropical systems occasionally push northward into the Northeast, whilst high-pressure systems can drive temperatures well above seasonal averages. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued five to ten days before the settlement date, will provide the first concrete directional signal. Any unusual atmospheric patterns flagged in late May or early June could shift trader positioning, though the current pricing already reflects substantial confidence in a normal or warm outcome.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.