Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's inability to price a future weather event with sufficient confidence rather than any genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data for KLGA station, converting the daily high into Fahrenheit and matching it against predetermined brackets. Traders are effectively wagering conditional tokens (USDC-backed) on Polygon against the atmospheric conditions that will prevail across New York City's primary weather observation point on that specific date.

New York's June weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates June highs at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2012 heat wave pushed temperatures above 90°F in early June, whilst cooler Junes have seen highs plateau in the mid-70s. Current seasonal forecasting models, updated monthly by NOAA, will become increasingly reliable as June 2026 approaches, particularly from late May onwards when medium-range forecasts gain predictive skill.

The primary catalyst for traders will be the release of updated climate outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, typically issued on the 8th and 22nd of each month. These seasonal and subseasonal forecasts indicate whether June 2026 is expected to run warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Real-time weather pattern shifts in late May—particularly the position of the jet stream and Atlantic high-pressure systems—will drive near-term adjustments to temperature expectations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.