Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's weather on 7 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak at LaGuardia Airport. The settlement mechanism hinges on historical data from Weather Underground, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, a technical artefact reflecting the market's nascent state rather than genuine certainty about June conditions. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can establish positions in conditional tokens representing discrete temperature brackets, though the absence of meaningful volume suggests the market awaits substantive participation before price discovery occurs.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 85°F, with historical records showing highs occasionally reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for early June sits around 78°F. Comparable years provide calibration: June 2021 saw a peak of 89°F on the 7th, whilst June 2019 recorded 82°F for the same date. These precedents anchor expectations within a 75–92°F band for most plausible outcomes, though extreme heat events remain meteorologically possible.

The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, updated weekly through May 2026, will signal atmospheric patterns affecting early June conditions. Atlantic tropical systems, high-pressure systems anchored over the eastern seaboard, and jet-stream positioning all influence whether the day breaks seasonal norms. Traders should monitor late-May weather models and any heat advisories issued by NWS; such announcements historically correlate with temperature outcomes in the upper quartile of historical distributions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.