Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% probability across the board, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market consensus about Seoul's weather that day. Resolution will depend entirely on historical data from Weather Underground, which archives hourly readings from the airport's official meteorological station.

Seoul's June temperatures have historically ranged between 20°C and 32°C, with average highs around 27–28°C during mid-June. The city experiences early monsoon season conditions by this date, meaning cloud cover and occasional rainfall can suppress peak temperatures, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the low 30s. Comparable years show considerable variability: June 2023 saw highs near 30°C, whilst June 2022 peaked around 28°C. This historical spread suggests multiple temperature brackets should carry meaningful probability weight rather than the current flat pricing.

Traders monitoring this contract should track South Korean meteorological forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues 10-day outlooks around that timeframe. Pacific typhoon activity and the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset will be critical catalysts—early monsoon arrival tends to cool peak temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau can drive heat waves. The contract's current zero-probability state suggests it may be awaiting liquidity injection or clarification on settlement mechanics before meaningful trading activity begins.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.