Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting the settlement window's closure at 12:00 UTC on that date—meaning traders cannot yet assess actual conditions. Once the day passes and Wunderground publishes the station's peak reading, the contract will resolve to whichever temperature band contains that figure, with conditional tokens on Polygon converting to USDC accordingly.

Shanghai's June temperatures cluster between 28°C and 35°C based on thirty-year averages, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 37–38°C during early-season heatwaves. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to differentiate probability across bands; historical precedent shows June 1st typically falls in the 30–33°C range, though anomalies occur roughly once per decade. Comparing adjacent markets on Shanghai's May and early-June temperatures would provide calibration for where traders expect the seasonal transition to settle.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—tropical systems tracking northward or persistent high-pressure systems—would shift expectations materially. The Pudong station's location in浦东 means urban heat-island effects influence readings relative to surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when cross-referencing provincial weather reports.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.